Low information voters in a high turnout election could sink or swim Ohio’s Issue 1 redistricting

This November’s election marks the fifth time in 20 years Ohioans will vote on how the state draws its congressional maps. But it’s the first time since 2012 an amendment like this coincides with a presidential election.

Proponents — and opponents — of the amendment are grappling with how to educate voters in what will likely be a high turnout election, where voter knowledge of redistricting and gerrymandering varies drastically.

A gerrymandering example in Columbus

High Beck Tavern is a Columbus watering hole just south of downtown in German Village. It sits on High Street, a key dividing line of Columbus that runs north to south for almost 24 miles, splitting the city in two.

A different, invisible line splits this same historic neighborhood between the 3rd and 15th Congressional Districts.

On a balmy summer afternoon in August, retired Columbus resident John Lee sat at the tavern’s wooden wraparound bar as Toto’s “Hold the Line” blared in the background.

Lee is a Democrat from Columbus’s south side. Like many Ohioans, he’s familiar with the basics of redistricting, but not the specifics.

“(Redistricting is) supposed to be a clear representation of the neighborhoods by party? Or by population?” Lee said. “I'll be honest with you, I really don't know.”

He’s not far off the mark.

Redistricting refers to how the lines of congressional, state house and senate districts are drawn. This process helps decide who gets sent to the halls of Congress and the Ohio Statehouse.

A bipartisan commission made up of elected officials passed the current maps, which the Ohio Supreme Court has ruled unconstitutional seven times. Many consider these maps to be a partisan gerrymander that benefits the Republican Party.

The map in German Village shows the sometimes absurd looking district borders – the lines split the neighborhood in two. If you cross the street from the iconic bookstore, The Book Loft, to St. Mary’s Church on the other side, you’re in a completely new district.

Democratic Congresswoman Joyce Beatty represents one side, while Republican Congressman Mike Carey represents the other.

Beatty lives on the border of the two districts on the Scioto River in downtown Columbus. Her district is compact, including about two-thirds of Franklin County to the north and east.

The lines were drawn in such a way that if she walks out her front door and crosses the street, she would be in Carey’s district.

Carey lives just south of the lines in German Village right on Schiller Park. His district cuts through German Village and downtown Columbus. It snakes and stretches 75 miles away to Shelby County and draws lines around the small town of Sidney, curving around the urban center of Springfield along the way.

Theoretically, the two lawmakers could shop at the same Kroger in Columbus’s Brewery District.

That’s where Joanne Jones, a local Republican, shops. WOSU showed her a map with the district lines and the homes of the two Congress members on it.

“Then they ought to know how high grocery prices are,” she said. “It certainly doesn’t look like Carey’s map is fair.”

How will high turnout impact Issue 1’s fate?

A group called Citizens Not Politicians wants to change these maps and the mapmaking system. They don’t want politicians drawing or even approving the maps. Instead, their ballot initiative would put the power into a 15-person citizen commission.

The amendment is 26 pages long, complex and includes a lot of legal jargon.

Dave Wasserman, an elections analyst with the Cook Political Report, said it could be hard for the everyday voter to understand.

“It can get pretty esoteric,” he said. “And a lot of voters throw their hands up in the air when they're trying to figure out how district lines are drawn and how it should be reformed.”

Throughout U.S. history, presidential election years draw higher turnout compared to midterm and odd-numbered years when ballots are mostly filled with municipal candidates and issues.

For example, Ohio had nearly 74% voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election. But in the 2022 midterms, Ohio had 52% voter turnout. Last year, in 2023, the state had less than 50% voter turnout.

Wasserman said low turnout elections are more favorable to ballot issues because voters who show up are more civic-minded. He said predicting a higher turnout election year’s impact on ballot issues gets “cloudy” because of low information voters.

“Voter bandwidth is stretched. They're paying attention to not only a presidential race and a Senate race, but various state level races, and on top of that, a ballot initiative,” he said.

Proponents of the redistricting amendment say this ballot initiative is even more confusing because of ballot language crafted by the Republican-controlled Ohio Ballot Board.

This language says Issue 1 “requires gerrymandering” and removes current gerrymandering protections from the Ohio Constitution passed by voters in 2015 and 2018 with over 70% of the vote.

Proponents call this language unfair and say it does not accurately summarize the amendment. They argue it will add new, better protections against gerrymandering, not require it.

Both campaigns for and against the Issue also have created yard signs and campaign messaging that tell voters “Vote Yes” to “ban gerrymandering” or “Vote No” to “stop gerrymandering.”

Wasserman said the fate of the ballot amendment may be up to how many voters “sniff out that the true intent of the reform has been altered.”

“It grossly represents the intent of this reform,” Wasserman said. “That makes this a difficult proposition, particularly when voters are not squarely focused on this question, but rather other races dominating the landscape.”

Defining Issue 1 to voters

Supporters and opponents of Issue 1 are trying to explain what the amendment will do and how it could impact Ohio.

State Rep. Bill Seitz, a longtime Republican lawmaker from Cincinnati, is one of the amendment’s opponents.

Seitz says telling voters the proposal removes politicians from the process is easy to explain to voters, but actually getting to the ideal “fair and impartial” district maps takes a lot more work.

“The pro side just has a very superficially appealing argument, which is ‘let's get the politicians out of the business. Let's stop gerrymandering. Let's validate citizens over politicians,’” Seitz said. “Well, that's a superficially appealing message that can be delivered in all of about 10 seconds.”

But Seitz said explaining the complexities of the opponent's argument takes more time.

Citizen Not Politicians spokesman Chris Davey believes increased turnout will help the amendment pass. He said Ohio voters already know a lot about gerrymandering because of recent history.

“When you have a year of high participation because of interest in the presidential race and the Senate race, that translates into more informed, more engaged voters and it translates into more people voting. And the more people that vote, the better system that we have,” Davey said.

Under Issue 1, district maps will be drawn based on federal law and several additional factors, including a proportionality formula that corresponds closely with the results of the last six statewide elections.

For example, Republicans won about 55% of the vote in recent statewide elections, so a proportional map would favor Republicans in eight or nine of Ohio's 15 congressional districts. Currently, Republicans hold 10 out of the 15 seats.

Issue 1 will require fair and impartial districts by making it unconstitutional to draw voting districts that help or hurt any one political party or individual politician.

A panel of two retired Republican and Democratic judges will choose its 15 members.

Other factors mapmakers would have to prioritize would be keeping communities of interest together as much as possible and not considering where incumbent lawmakers live as a factor.

Seitz said he is primarily against Issue 1 putting proportionality above the rest of the factors when drawing a map, but he has other concerns too.

“I hope the opponents are able to effectively make the case that this is a little bit too complicated to just say, ‘Let's do it.’ I think it needs more study. I think it needs more discussion,” Seitz said.

Davey said the campaign in support of Issue 1 sees the success of redistricting reform in states like Michigan, Colorado and Arizona and they hope to emulate it here. He said if it happens, it would positively impact politics in Ohio.

“When you have fair districts that are drawn in a open and transparent process, what that results in is better legislators, a better quality of representatives going to Columbus and to Washington who are interested in actually solving problems for Ohioans and moving our state forward instead of all this nonsense, and bickering and infighting,” Davey said.

Seitz said from conversations he’s had with other people on the topic, many believe Issue 1 will pass. Seitz, who is known in Ohio politics to speak plainly, said one big reason for that is pretty simple:

"Gerrymandering is about as popular as STDs.”

What do voters think of Issue 1?

Voters in Ohio have been split on reforming how Ohio draws its maps. The last two attempts in 2015 and 2018 saw over 70% of the state approve it. But back in 2012, voters failed to pass a proposed citizen-led redistricting panel, with over 60% of voters voting against it.

In German Village and the Brewery District, where neighborhoods are cut in half by the current system, voters of all stripes seem supportive.

John Lee, the Democrat at High Beck Tavern, said he plans to vote yes.

“To take politicians out of the equation? Given the things that have happened recently, that may not be a bad idea at all," Lee said.

Meanwhile, Cory Windle, an Independent voter, is more skeptical. He was shopping at Kroger in Columbus’s Brewery District — the same store near both Reps. Joyce Beatty and Mike Carey.

He said he thinks it ultimately doesn’t matter how the districts are drawn or where congresspeople live. He’s cynical about the system and doesn’t have a lot of trust in Ohio’s government.

“I'm not sure that they're interested in changing things for the better anyhow,” he said. “So yeah, I think it slows progress when you kind of carve things out the way that they are.”

But Windle said on its face, he likes the proposed amendment and could support it.

Joanne Jones, the Republican Kroger shopper, said she’s leaning toward voting yes too, but wants to educate herself more. She hopes other voters will follow her lead.

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